Load growth, plant retirements could drive 100x increase in blackouts by 2030: DOE

Robert Walton | Source: Utility DIVE | Posted 07/09/2025

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The U.S. Department of Energy on Monday published a methodology for assessing grid reliability, but clean energy advocates say it likely exaggerates the risks of blackouts.


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The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has released a report warning that blackouts could increase by 100 times by 2030 if the country continues to close power plants without adding sufficient firm capacity to meet rising energy demands. The report, mandated by a presidential executive order, suggests that the U.S. could face over 800 hours of outages annually, significantly impacting households and businesses. It estimates that 104 GW of power plants will retire by 2030, while only 22 GW of new generation will be reliable. The DOE emphasizes the need for a renewed focus on firm generation to mitigate these risks.

However, clean energy advocates argue that the report may overstate the blackout risks and undervalue renewable energy sources like wind and solar. Critics, including representatives from the Sierra Club and Advanced Energy United, express concerns about the methodology used in the report and the lack of public input. They argue that the DOE's approach could lead to unnecessary costs for consumers and hinder the transition to cleaner energy solutions. The debate highlights the ongoing tensions between traditional energy sources and the push for a more sustainable energy future.



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