ERCOT releases Capacity, Demand and Reserves forecast for 2024-2033

Highlights

The forecasted peak demand for summer 2024 is 85,029 MW, while the firm peak demand (which includes the impact of curtailable load programs) is 81,643 MW. The winter 2024-25 peak demand forecast is 71,547 MW and firm peak demand forecast is 68,835 MW.

The peak demand forecast incorporates expected load increases during the seasonal peak demand hours due to the interconnection of Large Loads (such as crypto-mining facilities) to Transmission Service Provider networks. For this report, that forecast utilizes an assumption that LFLs are only consuming 10% of their total load. There are also Large Loads, totaling approximately 760 MW, that have been connected directly to co-located generation plants. For this CDR report, such co-located Large Loads are not netted against the generation capacities and are thus assumed to be fully curtailable if needed by ERCOT when reserve capacity is tight. This is an interim CDR planning assumption to be used until ERCOT implements a forecast methodology for addressing Large Loads in Reserve Margins. Note that this is different from the SARA which utilizes an interim short-term forecast based on historical prices during tight grid conditions. ERCOT has also adopted the policy of not identifying the generating units with co-located Large Loads in the CDR and SARA until formal reporting rules have been adopted.

The Planning Reserve Margin for summer 2024 is forecasted to be 33.9%, representing a 6.0 percentage point decrease relative to the 39.9% margin reported in the November 2022 CDR report. This decrease is due mainly to delays of planned projects that were previously expected to be in service by July 1, 2024. The Reserve Margin rises to 44.2% for summer 2025, largely reflecting solar capacity additions, much of which represents project delays from prior years. The 'Planned Resource Scenarios' tab provides smaller planned resource amounts and lower Reserve Margins based on more stringent eligibility criteria for including planned resources in the CDR.

Planned resource capacity expected by July 2024 totals 26,230 MW, and of this total, 14,038 MW are expected to be available during peak load periods. This includes 1,335 MW of summer-rated gas-fired resources, 542 MW of wind resources, and 12,161 MW of solar resources. These amounts of solar and wind capacity are what ERCOT expects to be available on an average basis during seasonal peak demand hours (the peak-average capacity contribution). Since the November 2022 CDR was released, two new gas-fired resources (totaling 233 MW) have qualified to be included in this CDR.

ERCOT also forecasts 10,340 MW of installed battery storage capacity by July 2024. ERCOT protocols currently don't include a methodology for determining the peak-average capacity contribution of battery storage, so the contribution in this CDR is officially reported as zero MW. ERCOT developed an interim capacity contribution methodology for the SARA reports. The summer 2023 capacity contribution percentage is 17.9% based on the interim method. Applying this percentage to the summer 2024 installed capacity yields a capacity contribution of 1,851 MW. ERCOT is developing a capacity contribution methodology for future CDR reports.

View the full ERCOT Capacity, Demand and Reserves report here.

Source Link: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/05/03/CapacityDemandandReservesReport__May2023.pdf