Ascend Analytics Releases New ERCOT Market Report, Forecasts Ongoing Scarcity Conditions in 2027 and Beyond

PR Newswire | Source: PR Newswire | Posted 05/30/2025

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Ascend Analytics ("Ascend"), the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy supply, announced the publication of its new ERCOT Market Report, Release 5.2. The most recent release in its series of proprietary power market forecasts, Ascend's updated ERCOT Market Report projects that ERCOT's load growth forecasts are unlikely to be met due to practical limitations to supply buildout.

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Ascend Analytics has released its latest ERCOT Market Report, which highlights a significant gap between projected power supply and demand in Texas, forecasting ongoing scarcity conditions into 2027 and beyond. The report indicates that ERCOT's load growth is unlikely to meet expectations due to limitations in supply buildout, leading to increased electricity scarcity and price volatility. Ascend's projections suggest that while new generation from solar and storage will initially outpace load growth in 2025 and 2026, a rapid emergence of scarcity is expected as demand accelerates in 2027.

The report emphasizes that the tension between load growth and supply buildout will create a sensitive reserve margin, resulting in a market characterized by boom and bust cycles. Additionally, the anticipated phaseout of clean energy tax credits is expected to slow the growth of renewables and storage in the 2030s. Ascend's Managing Director, Brent Nelson, noted that the ongoing changes in ERCOT will lead to a volatile market, with storage positioned as a key resource if supportive policies remain in place.

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Ascend Analytics Releases New ERCOT Market Report, Forecasts Ongoing Scarcity Conditions in 2027 and Beyond

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