ERCOT CDR Shows Improved Summer Reserve Margin Outlook

Paul Ring | Source: Energy Choice Matters | Posted 05/19/2025

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In the CDR, ERCOT stated, "One scenario in this CDR -- using 'Protocol Prescribed' capacity resources and the new ERCOT Adjusted Load Forecast—indicates that summer Planning Reserve Margins for 2026 through 2030 decrease significantly from year to year, and cross over to negative values in 2028.

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ERCOT's May 2025 Capacity Demand Report (CDR) reveals a more favorable outlook for summer reserve margins compared to previous forecasts. The updated load forecast indicates that while reserve margins are projected to decline from 2026 to 2030, the crossover to negative values has been pushed back to 2028, as opposed to the earlier prediction of 2026/2027. For instance, the summer reserve margin for 2026 is now forecasted at 17.2%, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 5.2%.

The report outlines specific reserve margins for both summer and winter seasons, highlighting the differences between the Protocol Prescribed margins and those based on alternative scenarios. For summer 2027, the new forecast shows a reserve margin of 9.0%, contrasting with the earlier prediction of -8.3%. However, by 2028, both scenarios indicate negative reserve margins, suggesting potential challenges ahead for ERCOT's capacity planning.

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ERCOT CDR Shows Improved Summer Reserve Margin Outlook

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