Meeting Summary - 04/29/2025 RPG Meeting

▶️1 - Antitrust Admonition - 9:30 a.m.

▶️2 - Miscellaneous Updates

• No miscellaneous updates were provided by attendees.

▶️3 - EIR Status Update – Combined Oncor Delaware Basin Stage 5 Project & WETT Delaware Basin Stage 5 Project Alternative

EIR_StatusUpdate_Combined_Dalaware_Basin_Stage_5_Project_and_Alterntive_RPG_April_2025.pdf

• Oncor submitted the Delaware Basin stage 5 project for review estimated to cost $744.6 million, targeting a December 2029 in-service date, addressing reliability issues in the Delaware Basin due to load growth.
• WETT proposed an alternative, estimated at $305.5 million, with potential cost savings and a December 2028 target date.
• ERCOT conducted a combined independent review for both Oncor's and WETT's options.
• Preliminary results showed both options met reliability criteria with similar long-term load serving capabilities and no violations during maintenance outage analysis.
• Updated feasibility and cost assessments indicated Oncor's project at $855.3 million and WETT’s at $871 million.
• ERCOT selected Oncor’s option as it met criteria, improved long-term capability, required less CCN mileage, and was the least cost option.
• Further analyses including congestion, generation addition sensitivity, load scaling, and SSR assessment showed no significant impacts favoring the Oncor proposal.
• Future steps involve formal reports and recommendations proceeding through ERCOT's governance structures.
• Yang Zhang from WETT questioned the decision-making process, specifically highlighting load serving capability, CCN mileage, and cost differences.
• ERCOT emphasized the primary focus is on meeting reliability needs and economic solutions, indicating cost was a significant factor between the two similar options.

▶️4 - EIR Status Update – Hartring to Upland 138-kV Line and Benedum Autotransformer Addition Project

EIR_StatusUpdate_Hartring_to_Upland_and_BenedumAuto_Project_RPG_April_2025-.pdf

• Oncor and LCRA TSC submitted the Hartring to Upland 138-kV line and Benedum Autotransformer Addition Project for RPG review in August 2024.
• This is a tier two project with an estimated cost of $94 million requiring a CCN filing.
• Expected in-service date for Oncor is summer 2025, and for LCRA is June 2026.
• The project addresses post-contingency thermal and voltage violations due to significant oil and gas load growth in the area.
• ERCOT is conducting an independent review and provided a status update at the March 2025 RPG meeting.
• Preliminary results show 2 thermal violations and 10 voltage violations under N-1 contingency.
• Options 1, 3, and 4 were shortlisted for further evaluation, with Option 1 being preferred.
• Option evaluations revealed no violations for Options 1, 3, and 4, while Option 2 had 2 thermal violations.
• New Option 5 was evaluated, modifying Option 4 based on TSP feedback.
• Option 5 presents a thermal violation under N-1 contingencies.
• Long-term load serving capability was assessed for shortlisted options, with Option 1 having the highest incremental load-serving capability.
• Planned maintenance outage evaluation conducted shows no issues for Option 1, while others have thermal violations.
• Cost estimates: Option 1—$97.7 million, Option 3—$74.7 million, Option 4—$114.3 million, Option 5—$117.3 million.
• Option 1 was recommended by ERCOT, meeting reliability criteria and offering the highest load serving capability with minimal CCN mileage.
• Option 1's estimated cost is $97,700,000, with an expected in-service date of November 2025 for Oncor and May 2028 for LCRA.
• ERCOT recommends Option 1 following a congestion analysis showing no congestion issues.

▶️5 - EIR Status Update – Baytown Area Load Addition Project

EIR-CNP-Baytown_Area_Load_Addition_Project_April_RPG.pdf

• Project submitted by CNP and classified as tier one with an estimated cost of $141.65 million and a service date of January 2028.
• The project addresses thermal and voltage violations caused by a new 500 MVA load in the Baytown area related to a new customer.
• CNP and ERCOT presented project scope in November RPG; subsequent status updates provided in February and March.
• Project is currently under independent review by ERCOT.
• Violations observed include overloads on various circuits and a thermal overload on the 130 kV Grant to Herman line.
• Reliability assessment showed limited violations; plan maintenance evaluation revealed additional issues.
• Addressed 13 thermal overloads and multiple voltage violations using planning guide methodologies.
• Options evaluated for addressing violations include different combinations of transmission line upgrades and substation enhancements across various regions of Houston.
• Option 1 focuses on Midtown with upgrades in Grant to Herman line and specific substation enhancements.
• Option 2 involves broader upgrades across Midtown, Baytown, Southeast Houston, and North Houston.
• Option 3 mirrors Option 2 except for Baytown differences, focusing on extending double circuit 345-kV lines.
• Timeline anticipates final recommendation by Q2 and readiness for board consideration in June.
• No questions or concerns were raised by attendees.

▶️6 - EIR Status Update – Texas A&M University System RELLIS Campus Reliability Project

EIR-BTU-Texas-A-M-University-System-RELLIS-Campus-Reliability-Project-Status-Update-RPG-Apr-2025.pdf

• The RELLIS Campus Reliability Project is a tier one project with a cost estimate of $271.5 million, requiring a CCN. The estimated in-service date is May 2029.
• ERCOT conducted a reliability need analysis driven by a new confirmed load of 378 MW in 2030. The analysis revealed multiple reliability violations in various competency conditions including low voltage and thermal overloads.
• Four options were studied to resolve the reliability violations. Option 1 involves expanding the existing RELLIS substation and adding a 345 kV double circuit line from TNP One to RELLIS. Other options involved different configurations of lines from TNP One, Sandow, and Salem to RELLIS.
• Options 1, 2, and 4 resolved all reliability violations under particular conditions, making them shortlisted for further evaluation. Option 3 had remaining overloads.
• Further evaluations will continue including long-term load serving capability assessments, cost estimates, and feasibility assessments. Final recommendations are expected by the end of the year.
• No questions were raised during the meeting.

▶️7 - EIR Status Update – Aransas Pass to Rincon 69-kV Line Rebuild Project

EIR_AEPSC_Aransas_Pass_to_Rincon_Project_Final_Update_RPG_April_2025.pdf

• The project was submitted in November 2024 as a tier two project, estimated at $33 million, requiring a CCN, with an in-service date of June 2026.
• The project addresses post-contingency thermal overloads in San Patricio County.
• ERCOT provided updates in previous RPG meetings, and the project is under independent review.
• Three options were presented to address thermal violations identified from Gregory to Aransas Pass.
• Option 1 involves rebuilding the existing Aransas Pass to Gregory 69-kV line to a 138-kV standard, with ratings of 239 MVA for 8.5 miles, including a 0.03-mile segment from Gregory to Rincon.
• Option 2 includes building a new Gregory to Gibbs 138-kV line, costing $52 million and requiring 1.36 miles of CCN.
• Option 3 involves building a new Ingleside - DuPont switch to Ingleside 138-kV double circuit line, costing $48 million and requiring 3.25 miles.
• All options were feasible and met ERCOT's reliability criteria, improving long-term load-serving capability.
• Option 1, costing $34 million and requiring one mile of CCN, is ERCOT's preferred option due to its cost-effectiveness and minimal CCN mileage.
• A congestion analysis showed no new congestion for the preferred option within the study area.
• The preferred option is to be completed by June 2026, with an EIR report to be posted in May.
• No questions were raised after the presentation.

▶️8 - EIR Status Update – Roscoe Area Upgrades

EIR-Oncor-Roscoe-Area-Upgrades-Project-StatusUpdate-April_2025_RPG.pdf

• Oncor submitted the Roscoe area upgrades project for RPG review in December 2024 with an estimated cost of $83 million and expected in-service date of June 2028.
• The project's main purpose is to address voltage violations observed by Oncor in the West weather zone, Nolan County.
• Project upgrades include enhancing the path from Eskota to Oak Creek, Oak Creek to Nolan, and Nolan to Sweetwater from 69-kV to 138-kV and constructing a new 138-kV line from Sweetwater Creek to Kilgore.
• Four project options were evaluated for addressing voltage violations, with options one and four shortlisted for further evaluation due to no thermal or power flow violations.
• Option one is Oncor's proposal, and option four includes constructing a new substation tapping between the Champion Creek to Oak Spring 345-kV line.
• Option three was deemed infeasible, and option two exhibited a thermal violation.
• Both shortlisted options showed improved long-term load serving capability and no voltage violations during planned maintenance outage evaluations.
• Next steps include further evaluation of options, feasibility assessments, and cost estimates with updates provided in the next RPG meeting and final recommendations reported by May.
• No questions were raised from the participants.

▶️9 - Southern DFW Load Interconnection and General Grid Strengthening Project Overview

Oncor_Southern-DFW-Load-Interconnection_Project_RPG_04292025.pdf

• Project is a tier one initiative spanning multiple counties, primarily driven by 4,064 MW of new load in the Southern DFW area.
• Aim: Resolve thermal and voltage violations, provide additional 345-kV sources, enhance load serving capacity, and improve system reliability.
• Project will include new switching stations and transformer installations, with extensive circuit miles upgrades.
• Estimated cost: $1.219 billion; completion anticipated between 2026-2028.
• Analysis on feasibility of line outages is ongoing; staggered construction scheduled between 2026 and 2028.
• Implemented both peak and off-peak cases in planning to address possible challenges with switching capacitor banks.
• Reactive compensation, including STATCOMs and capacitors, planned to support the new load.
• Questions raised regarding feasibility, load assumptions, and prioritization of projects in response to anticipated service dates.
• Clarifications on load types and agreements, addressing loads predominantly from data centers or cryptos.
• Discussion on storage capability and design standards for load connections.

▶️10 - ERCOT Independent Review Scope: Southern DFW Load Interconnection and General Grid Strengthening Project

EIR_Scope_Oncor_Southern_DFW_Load_Interconnection_Project_-_RPG_April_2025.pdf

• The focus is on the transmission elements in various counties in the North, Central, and East weather zone, using a base case from the 2024 RTP and 2029 summer peak load case.
• Projects within the study area before December 2028 will be included unless they're already in the case; some are listed in appendix A1.
• Transmission projects identified as placeholders in the 2024 RTP will be removed, with a list available in appendix A2.
• New generation with a service date before December 2028 will be added if not already modeled, as per the 2025 March GIS report.
• Generation dispatch will be consistent with the 2024 RTP, and recently retired units will be reviewed.
• Study area load adjusted to project submissions while maintaining reserves consistent with the 2024 RTP.
• Standard contingencies will follow NERC and ERCOT guidelines, and specific plants and transformers were listed for testing.
• Reliability analysis, maintenance outage evaluation, and long-term load capability assessment will be executed.
• Project validity will lead to additional analysis like sensitivity, SSR assessment, and congestion analysis.
• Updates will be provided in future RPG meetings with final recommendations tentatively scheduled for Q3 2025.

▶️11 - Hamilton County Conversion Project Overview

• The project spans across Comanche County, Hamilton County, Coryell County, and into Bell County.
• Brazos Electric is responsible for a long 69-kV transmission line in this corridor.
• Project begins at Hasse Substation with a 138-kV source and will move south to Gustine-Indian Gap transmission line.
• A CCN application required due to limited existing easements, additional easements are being acquired.
• Full voltage conversion planned due to a transmission constraint.
• Grizzly Ridge site has a generator limited to 70 MW, although capable of 110 MW.
• Two official projects are connecting to the grid: Grizzly Ridge and another 100 MW solar farm.
• There have been several load inquiries, but many are put off by potential delays for full service capability.
• Brazos Electric is concerned about potential future voltage violations due to load growth.
• Goal is to perform a full voltage conversion from Hasse to Poage (soon to be replaced by Crusader station).
• The project description is submitted and available on the ERCOT MIS site, though not with meeting materials.
• No additional comments or questions from the room attendees.

▶️12 - ERCOT Independent Review Scope: Hamilton County Conversion Project

EIR_BEC_Hamilton_County_Conversion_Project_SCOPE_APRIL.pdf

• The project is a tier two project estimated to cost $90 million, requiring CCN with an estimated in-service date of fall 2030.
• It is recommended as a GTC exit strategy for the Hamilton GTC.
• Project involves converting multiple 69-kV to 138-kV pathways in between Hasse and Poage and involves various substations and transmission lines.
• They will rebuild certain segments as double circuits with specified MVA ratings.
• Study assumptions include focusing on the North Central weather zone, and using the 2024 RTP 2030 summer peak case.
• Economic study will also be conducted using the 2024 RTP economic study base case for 2029.
• Needed analysis will include both reliability and economic analysis, project evaluation will test alternatives, and planned maintenance and congestion analysis will be conducted.
• Final project recommendation expected in Q2 of this year.
• Question about additional generation for Brazos interconnecting with the project area will be updated in the April GIS report.
• GTC exit strategy option is studied as a project alternative.

▶️13 - Update on Financial Assumptions for ERCOT Economic Planning Criteria

Financial-Assumptions-Update-for-ERCOT-Economic-Planning-Criteria_2025RTP_v1.0.pdf

• ERCOT performs two required tests for economic projects, namely the congestion cost savings test and the production cost savings test, as per PUCT substantive rules.
• A transmission project is considered economically viable if it passes either of these tests.
• The congestion cost savings test evaluates if consumer energy cost savings exceed the average of the first three years' annual revenue requirement.
• The production cost savings test assesses if annual production cost savings exceed the first year annual revenue requirement.
• Nodal protocol sections 3.11.2(5) and 3.11.2(6) necessitate annual reviews of financial assumptions used to determine revenue requirements.
• Revenue requirement calculations for TSPs cover the return on rate base (cost of equity and debt and debt to equity ratio), depreciation, O&M costs, and taxes.
• The current financial assumptions methodology in use is consistent with that used in 2024.
• The methodology employs a generic transmission project with assumed capital cost for each TSP to calculate revenue requirements.
• Results show a side-by-side comparison of first year and average first three years' revenue requirements for each TSP.
• Weighted first year annual revenue requirement is at 13%, and the average for the first three years is 12.7% for this year.
• Questions were addressed regarding the economic criteria tests and the generic baseline project used for calculations.

▶️14 - Long-Term Load Forecast

Long-term-Load-Forecast-RPG.pdf

• Discussion on various components of the forecast including base economic forecast, electric vehicle (EV), crypto, and rooftop solar forecasts.
• Explained the methodology of the 'waterfall approach' to read forecasts.
• Winter storm Uri scenario analysis included to understand impact on forecasts.
• Economic outlook reflects a positive linear trend for residential and business premises growth.
• EV forecast growth is slower than expected due to lack of sales, with detailed charging patterns considered for different zones.
• Crypto forecast includes a new large flexible load profile with observed patterns from previous years.
• Rooftop solar forecast has a model based on per customer usage with weather and calendar variables.
• Annual energy and peak relationship shows demand response increases during summer, slowing peak growth compared to annual energy.
• New forecast methodologies emphasize officer letters and contracts, indicating substantial data center load growth.
• Questions addressed on data center load ramp-up, officer letter loads methodologies, and data transparency.
• ERCOT mentioned ongoing studies and collaboration with stakeholders to refine load forecasts and understand the grid impact.
• Acknowledgment of the challenges posed by moving target forecasts and the need for transparency and consistency in processes.

▶️15 - Adjourn