ERCOT calls new demand forecast a 'sanity check' amid Texas data center boom

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The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) recently presented a revised demand forecast, which it termed a 'sanity check' to address concerns from lawmakers about the potential surge in power usage due to the rapid growth of data centers in the state. ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas indicated that while the adjusted forecast still predicts a significant increase of approximately 75% in demand, it provides a more realistic outlook compared to previous estimates that suggested demand could exceed 200 gigawatts by 2030. The new forecast estimates a peak demand of 148 gigawatts by 2030, taking into account the actual number of data centers that have materialized versus those that are merely speculative.

Despite this adjustment, skepticism remains among some lawmakers regarding ERCOT's methodology, particularly concerning the reliability of historical data given the recent influx of data centers. The forecast is based on a combination of signed contracts and letters of intent from transmission providers, but critics argue that many proposed projects may never come to fruition. As Texas aims to support the data center industry, ERCOT is tasked with ensuring that the necessary infrastructure is in place to meet future demand while avoiding potential grid overloads. Lawmakers are exploring legislative measures to enhance demand flexibility among data centers and improve the accuracy of future forecasts.