Frame

Grid Monitor AI
05/20/2025

Presented updates on the CRR Long-Term Auctions, including transaction counts and solution times.
The latest auction, 2025.2nd6.Seq1, recorded 575,000 transactions, taking 117 hours.
First sequence one to enforce the new table under NPRR1261.
Discussion on varying capacity factors across different sequences affecting transaction numbers.
Increase in CR account holders and transaction counts noted; a 12% increase in submitted transactions observed in the latest sequence.
Clarification provided on differences between submitted transactions and baseload-inclusive transaction numbers.
NPRR1261 allows operational flexibility for CR auction limits across sequences.
Potential changes to transaction limits due to performance concerns and increased participation.
Discussions on maintaining sufficient performance without necessitating a Transaction Adjustment Period (TAP).
Clarified that each sequence runs independently, but lengthy runs could affect subsequent sequences.
Confirmed the possibility to modify limits across total transactions, per TOU, or per CR account holder.
Consideration for reducing CR account holder limits for Sequence One to manage participation and performance.
Questions arose regarding potential impacts on sequences and notification of any changes to account holder limits.

Ryan King presented an update on NPRR1255, focusing on the available stored energy concept.
Reviewed the history of Energy Storage Resource (ESR) mitigation consultations starting in September 2023.
Discussed the introduction of a dynamic “just-in-time” mitigation framework, focusing on resource management during congestion flagged as having market power.
Explained the shift factor threshold and its implications for energy storage resources (ESR).
Reviewed backcast analysis showing the infrequency of expected impacts, with less than 1% of intervals affected with 95% for one hour or less.
Highlighted concerns around state of charge and the introduction of an available stored energy for the next hour concept.
Described conditions under which mitigation would not apply, particularly when energy for the next hour falls below 25%.
Presented two case examples illustrating the mitigation framework.
Discussed stakeholder concerns and potential need for a scaling factor in the mitigation approach.
Considered the broader context and implementation flexibility related to state of charge and other parameters.
Engaged in discussion about potential solutions for ESRs managing their state of charge under market conditions.
Considered the discussions at previous CMWGs as well as PRS.

Seth Cochran, Vitol: Suggested including a scaling factor in the formulation for MOCs for storage to allow for flexibility.
Blake Holt, LCRA: Raised concerns about market power and mitigation allowing ESRs to exploit market power for some intervals.
Mo Khoshjhan, Tesla: Questioned the analysis behind the 25% SOC threshold and suggested a potential alternative calculation.
Shane Thomas, Shell: Clarified how often the factors for mitigation are recalculated.

Caitlin Smith and Ryan King discuss the continuation of a previous, unresolved discussion concerning NPRR1255 and future planning for the next working group meeting.
Commitment to review comments, connect with involved parties, and seek additional input on unresolved concerns related to outages and related market mechanisms.

High PTP and PTPLO interval record submission volumes are linked to increased optimization engine execution times.
Submission volumes are continuously growing with no apparent upper limit.
ERCOT has proposed a submission fee for PTP submissions, excluding PTPLOs.
Currently, 25 new resource nodes are being added as part of NPRR1188.
A small number of market participants (about 15 counterparties) submit around 50% of PTPs over the last four and a half years.
Approximately 250,000 PTPs were submitted daily on average in April.
ERCOT is studying the influence of various inputs on the execution time of the optimization engine.
ERCOT is open to suggestions for specific items to study, such as the number of unawarded PTPs.
No formal proposal or NPRRs on the submission fee have been made yet, only informal discussions.
Kent Withrow with Customized Energy Solutions inquired about the submission fee proposal.

Introduction of Llker Araci from Sabanci Renewables, highlighting commercial and finance concerns related to solar outages in Houston.
Discussion of continuous outages in critical transmission lines such as WA Parish, OASIS, DOW, and Valley transmission lines.
Planned effort to compare transmission line outages across multiple years to understand trends and increases.
Acknowledgment of increased physical curtailments due to outages, referenced as double the amount in previous years.
Discussion on finding the proper forum for ideas on the surge in transmission outages, including a brainstorming session.
Concerns raised about unplanned extensions of outages and lack of hedging tools to mitigate additional risk.
Discussion on hedging mechanisms and the limitations due to project financing and fixed volume hedge restrictions.
Acknowledgement of differences between hedging markets in Europe (zonal) versus US (nodal) and the implications for revenue.
Concerns about the potential increase in outages with additional power plants coming online in ERCOT and need for future trend analysis.
Ryan King suggests that the subject may be better addressed in a different working group due to lack of appropriate oversight on operations.

The meeting opened the floor for questions regarding the latest RENA report from the working group.
No questions were raised concerning the RENA update.

There was a request to discuss shadow price mitigation, but this will be postponed to the next call.
Matthew Schmidt was prepared to present, but it was proposed to move the discussion to next month since Blake and others had dropped off.
NPRR1230 discussion is deferred to the next meeting.
No objections from the team about postponing the topics.
The meeting adjourned with appreciation for attendees' participation and understanding of the late timing.