Kristi Hobbs, VP of system planning and weatherization for ERCOT, discussed the impact of load growth in the Permian Basin.
ERCOT carried out a study as directed by the commission, revealing a significant load growth in the Permian, with an increase of over 43% from the previous study.
The load growth in the Permian is comparable to the current size of DFW or the Houston Galveston area, yet there is less than 3,000 MW of conventional generation in the region.
Discussion on the development of local projects and import paths into the Permian region.
The recommendation for the commission involved deciding on the level of voltage for import paths into the Permian, with 765 kV being a new consideration for ERCOT.
ERCOT provided alternative solutions and a comparison document for the regional transmission plan to illustrate cost benefits.
Transmission service providers will utilize these plans as loads materialize and go through a regional planning group process for further evaluation.
Four main points of discussion: height of 765 towers, right of way width, cost of projects, and schedule for addressing current and future transmission needs.
ERCOT is working on collecting updated cost data, as 85% of build costs are attributed to transmission lines and 15% to substations.
Emphasis on meeting the current and future transmission needs to support grid reliability and provide value for consumers.
Presented a detailed comparison of supply chain timelines and cost variability between 345 kV and 765 kV transmission lines.
Highlighted factors affecting lead times for design approval and material acquisition, particularly emphasizing differences in bushing supplier availability.
Addressed transportation logistics, emphasizing that delivery from Korea to the USA remains unchanged, taking 8 weeks.
Discussed production capacity expansion plans for facilities in Ulsan, Korea, and Montgomery, Alabama to handle the upcoming demand, particularly for 765 kV units.
Details on cost variability were segmented into material, design, and processing aspects. Special emphasis was placed on using RIP bushings for high-voltage 765 kV transformers.
Highlighted the strategic slot reservation system to manage lead times effectively.
Strategic investments are being made globally to increase production capability, including hiring more employees and enhancing R&D efforts.
Hitachi Energy has over 50 years of experience in producing high voltage transformers, particularly 765 kV units, and is actively investing to meet future demand.
Hitachi emphasizes a vertically integrated supply chain for better control over critical components like bushings and insulation systems.
It was noted that factories producing 345 kV and 765 kV transformers share technology, allowing for flexibility and optimization.
The ongoing demand for power transformers and the need for long-term partnerships and production slot reservations were highlighted.
Presentations stressed the importance of managing lead times effectively to prevent production delays.
Megan Griffiths from the Permian Basin Petroleum Association emphasized the need for rapid infrastructure build-out in the Permian region, expressing neutrality on voltage but concern about delays.
Discussion revolved around the procurement process for transmission slots, especially comparing the differences between 345 kV and 765 kV capacities.
Jason Neal from HICO and Tony Zito from Siemens Energy addressed details of slot interchangeability, lead times, and project scheduling.
Concerns about potential delays and material procurement processes were expressed by various participants.
The issue of standardization across equipment and practices for interoperability and efficiency was raised repeatedly.
The panel discussed the complexities of line routing, design, and right-of-way acquisition, with input from transmission line designers and other stakeholders.
The impact of potential tariffs, cost escalation, and other financial risks were brought up as factors that need careful consideration in project planning.
Reliability of equipment at different voltages was affirmed, with emphasis on testing and standardization to improve system resilience.
Stakeholders raised concerns about infrastructure and logistical challenges specific to Texas and the Permian Basin, urging detailed planning to avoid delays.
The session closed with calls for further discussion and input from the Transmission Service Providers (TSPs) scheduled for later in the day.
AEP Texas provided a cost estimate of $5,800,000 per mile for the Solstice to Howard transmission line, which includes $5.4 million for construction and the rest for right of way.
The terrain is challenging, affecting the overall cost estimate.
Discussed uncertainties comparing 345 kV and 765 kV infrastructure, focusing on transmission line and station scope.
Construction materials like steel, aluminum, and concrete have similar volume requirements for both 765 kV and 345 kV setups, with slight differences in conductor and concrete usage.
Highlighted the need for long lead time materials for 765 kV due to new voltage requirements.
ERCOT's cost estimate of $6,100,000 per mile, derived from MISO guidelines, is considered reasonable, with a 20% route adder factored in.
The collaboration between LCRA and Oncor for the 765 kV project has been beneficial, and they are addressing vendor consultations to improve estimates.
The exercise for LCRA included looking at 765 kV cost estimates and revising assumptions for a more accurate scope.
CPS Energy and AEP confirmed that the range of cost estimates aligns with their expectations based on evaluations.
Commitment towards project completion by 2030/2031 was acknowledged.
Overall consensus was that MISO's guide is a robust and reasonable estimate, though some specifics differ project by project.
Transmission line costs are about 85% of the total program, with station costs being approximately 15% according to ERCOT estimates.
Some cost differences arise from specific items like station equipment and assumptions in cost applications.
Key cost factors include the need for additional equipment such as auto transformer banks and shunt reactors which are not accounted for in the basic MISO estimates.
The MISO guide is seen as a good baseline for cost estimates despite minor variability based on unique project conditions.
Certain components of the guide align well with familiar standards like the 69 kV, 138 kV, and 345 kV lines.
CPS Energy acknowledges some variability in station costs due to less clear scope definition but overall agrees with the cost estimates.
No follow-up questions were raised by meeting participants.
No new or recent risks outside the control of TSPs differentiate 765 kb or 345 kV infrastructure build outs.
Tariffs and labor are equally impactful to both build outs.
Supply chain concerns exist regarding tariffs but do not set the two apart.
No reasonably anticipated or identified risks at this time that favor one build out over the other.
No questions or objections raised by TSPs.
▶️3.5 - Question 5
Discussion on whether all TSPs should use voluntary uniform design and construction standards for the 765 kV infrastructure in the Permian Basin.
Advantages of standardization include benefits from manufacturing efficiencies, consistent ratings and interchangeability of equipment, and facilitation of planning and operations.
Emphasis on not being too rigid with standardization to allow some customization based on engineering needs, project-specific requirements, and existing vendor relationships.
AEP has extended its experience and standards in 765 kV to aid other providers, which helps accelerate the process.
Various standards such as NEMA, NC, and IEEE are generally followed in the industry, promoting compatibility.
Concerns about being too prescriptive with standardization, as it could add time and cost to projects.
CPS Energy, LCRA, and other stakeholders agree on the importance of standardization but stress the need for flexibility.
Continuous collaboration among TSPs, such as Oncor, LCRA, and AEP, is occurring organically to develop best practices without imposing additional mandatory requirements.
New TSPs using 765 kV rely on the expertise of AEP and others who have extensive experience, employing consultants where needed to address site-specific customization requirements.
Long lead time major equipment procurement is generally independent of specific substation designs.
Interconnection of systems at different voltage levels requires coordination to avoid bottlenecks, but existing agreements and practices facilitate this.
Discussed the operational resiliency benefits of 765 kV infrastructure vs. 345 kV during extreme disruption events, referencing the 2003 Northeast blackout as a key example.
Highlighted the 765 kV system's ability to absorb outages like a shock absorber adding stability.
Introduced examples of 765 kV's adaptability, such as significant reverse power flows seen in the Upper Midwest during extreme weather conditions.
Discussed a recent West Virginia project where a newly completed 765kV line improved operational flexibility by allowing the retirement of surplus operating procedures.
Addressed concerns about reliability and resiliency with fewer 765 kV lines compared to more 345 kV lines, assuring that contingency plans account for potential weaknesses.
Acknowledged vendor experience and mutual aid as factors in managing system restoration and resiliency, emphasizing spare equipment strategy for 765 kV systems.
Discussed the potential need for coordination and holistic planning in expanding 765 kV networks, comparing it to an interstate system development.
Highlighted discussions about legislative guidance and rulemaking on regional planning, examining how broader analysis can aid in smart expansion.
Explored perspectives on cost, timeline, and planning elements for 765 kV vs 345 kV, emphasizing customer commitments and long-term state benefits.
Discussed the need to align 765 kV builds with generation and load signals, affirming an interconnected approach for maximizing new infrastructure.
