The Venus Switch to Sam Switch 345-kV line project is a tier one project submitted to RPG in June; estimated cost is $118.9 million, and completion is expected by May 2026.
The project addresses post contingency thermal overloads and does not require a CCN.
ERCOT is conducting an independent review of the project, specifically in Hill and Ellis counties, focusing on the Venus switch to Sam Switch double circuit 345-kV line.
Transmission updates have been made in terms of approved and studied RPG projects with in-service dates prior to May 2026.
Generation and confirmed loads in the north and north central weather zones have been updated.
Updated preliminary reliability analysis shows thermal overloads in N-1, G-1, and X-1 cases.
Three project options have been proposed, all solving thermal violations with no additional thermal or voltage violations under various conditions.
Further assessments include long-term load serving capability, cost and feasibility assessments, generation addition and load scaling sensitivity analyses, subsynchronous resonance assessment, and congestion analysis.
Updates will be provided at future RPG meetings and the final project recommendation is expected in quarter four of this year.
5 - EIR Status Update – Wilmer 345/138-kV Switch Project - ERCOT - Ying Li
ERCOT's Ying Li presented an independent review status update for the Oncor Wilmer switch project.
The Wilmer project is a tier-one project in Dallas County with a cost estimate of $158 million, requiring a CCN with an estimated in service date of May 26.
The project aims to address summer overloads at the Wilmer substation, driven by a large new contracted load.
ERCOT and Oncor provided a project overview and study scope at the September RPG meeting.
ERCOT conducted a reliability need analysis based on the final 2023 RTP 2028 North/North-Central Summer peak case.
Results showed unsolvable contingencies under certain conditions and various thermal and voltage violations.
Three options were evaluated to address reliability needs:
Option 1 (Oncor Proposed): Expanding Wilmer substation, installing transformers, capacitors, double circuits, and upgrades, which resolved all violations.
Option 2: Looping the Watermill to Tricorner circuit at Wilmer, left one overload unresolved.
Option 3: Looping the Watermill to West Levee line at Wilmer, also left one overload unresolved.
Additional evaluations and analysis are ongoing, with a final recommendation expected by December.
No questions or comments followed the presentation.
6 - Hartring to Upland 138-kV Line and Benedum Autotransformer Addition Project Overview - Oncor
Discussed the 2024 LTSA Transmission Expansion Analysis using current trends.
Explained the LTSA study framework, starting with scenario development followed by generation capacity expansion analysis using a zonal model.
The first iteration does not consider transmission limitations; the second iteration uses a three-zone model focusing on West Texas airport and panhandle interface limits.
Results indicate a need for 88 gigawatts of new resources by 2039, broken down by types such as storage, solar, wind, etc.
Analysis includes mapping new resources to nodal models and assessing transmission needs and congestion costs.
Congestion costs were estimated for 2034 ($2.2 billion) and 2039 ($3.2 billion), with significant costs from West Texas airport interface and other areas.
Next steps for ERCOT include evaluating transmission projects to improve efficiency and address congestion.
Engaged in Q&A discussing load growth, economic model assumptions, feasibility of generation sites, and possible future inclusions of load projections.
Suggestions included providing more comprehensive tables summarizing generation and load, historical context of LTSA, and considering factors like SMRs and geographic feasibility in future analyses.
11 - ERCOT Extra-High Voltage Infrastructure Update - ERCOT
ERCOT is discussing their Extra-High Voltage (EHV) infrastructure plans, focusing on the 765 kV plan divided into two phases: initial build (Phase 1) and future expansion (Phase 2) beyond 2030.
The purpose is to optimize the plan for 2030 load projections by comparing standard RPG assessments with EHV strategies.
Two proposals for the 765 kV plan are being developed, which include cost, system loss comparisons, and analysis of system stability and congestion by mid-January 2025.
An update could be expected in November, with more finalized plans by December. Workshop facilitation is also planned for further stakeholder discussions.
Questions arise around compliance requirements for both 345 and 765 kV studies, cautious about using 'limited' in describing the analysis scope.
Clarifications were made about capital cost considerations and analysis depth for both the 345 kV and 765 kV infrastructure, conveying that detailed feasibility and cost studies will be forthcoming.
Clarification on shunt reactors needed for 765 kV plan, indicating a baseline assumption of necessities despite not completing all feasibility analyses.
Discussions around handling redundancy criteria and maintenance for 765 kV alongside the need for making generation assumptions were noted.
Feedback processes and internal ERCOT discussions will inform the decisions on regional planning group submissions as well as for evaluating 345 vs. 765 kV plans.
Highlighted bandwidth and timing constraints in conducting comprehensive feasibility analyses, particularly concerning construction feasibilities for TSP’s.
ERCOT plans to modify the schedule of the long-term load forecast updates. This is due to various contracts, officer letters and study loads.
The updated forecast will include electric vehicles, photovoltaic, large flexible load forecasts, and will be presented mainly for the SAWG and CDR.
ERCOT will conduct a survey asking participants for additional input, aimed for a late March or early April update.
There is a strong focus on improving transparency and accuracy, with a suggestion to provide updated load type charts on a quarterly basis.
ERCOT is working on consolidating data requests into one request to minimize burden on participants, possibly developing a portal for information transfer.
Clarification was made that the term 'large flexible load forecast' includes crypto data centers, not AI data centers.
Request for a comprehensive process for collecting officer letters with appropriate market notices to avoid miscommunication seen previously.
The potential for large loads to have on-site generation is being considered in upcoming surveys.
The percentage curtailment for large flexible loads might increase, based on observed behaviors during peak times.
ERCOT plans to release the next survey around January 2 to incorporate data regarding co-located generation.
